Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite tv for pc firm SpaceX is planning a $75 billion IPO in June, which might make it the biggest near-term public itemizing with a significant Bitcoin treasury.
Key takeaways:
- A Nasdaq 100 quick entry might develop Bitcoin publicity among the many prime mega-cap shares, together with Tesla.
- The IPO might stress tech shares as passive funds promote present Nasdaq names to purchase SpaceX, which can show bearish for Bitcoin.
SpaceX IPO set to extend Nasdaq’s publicity to Bitcoin
SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC in its current S-1 submitting, price roughly $1.45 billion, making it the biggest recognized Bitcoin holder amongst firms getting ready for, or just lately submitting for, a public itemizing.
Supply: SpaceX’s S1 Submitting
Below Nasdaq’s newer “quick entry” guidelines, mega-cap IPOs can enter the Nasdaq 100 inside 15 buying and selling days, which means SpaceX might rapidly grow to be one of many index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands close to the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion vary after the $75 billion IPO.
Consequently, Bitcoin publicity contained in the Nasdaq 100 might develop past Tesla.
The electrical carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC on its steadiness sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would give the Nasdaq 100 a second Elon Musk-linked mega-cap firm with direct Bitcoin publicity.
“With the SpaceX IPO, the Magazine 7 will grow to be the Magazine 8,” stated Phong Le, CEO of Technique, whereas referring to the elite group of mega-cap tech shares, specifically Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.
He added:
“25% of the Magazine 8 can have Bitcoin on their steadiness sheet.”
Bitcoin nonetheless faces draw back dangers
SpaceX IPO could also be “dangerous information for tech shares,” in keeping with analyst Nic Puckrin.
“If it is added to the Nasdaq 100 in a ‘quick entry’, passive funds have to purchase it & promote different inventory,” Puckrin stated in a Friday put up, including:
“The upper SpaceX goes, the extra they purchase of it and promote of others. It will act like a large capital vacuum.”
Puckrin primarily based his outlook on JPMorgan estimates exhibiting that Nvidia might face greater than $20 billion in passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.
JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive buyers. Supply: Monetary Occasions/Nic Puckrin
Apple might face roughly $16 billion in estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla additionally prone to function funding sources for the SpaceX rebalance.
Bitcoin has traded intently with mega-cap tech for many of 2026.
As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Magazine 7 shares, stood close to +0.81.
BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView
For merchants, meaning BTC has just lately moved in the identical path as main tech shares most of the time.
So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and different giant tech names, Bitcoin may additionally face short-term draw back danger as buyers cut back publicity to the broader risk-on commerce.
How low can BTC value go?
On-chain metrics present Bitcoin’s obvious demand has dropped to its lowest in 4 months, which can result in months of consolidation.
That weak demand backdrop additionally traces up with BTC’s present technical construction. Since February, Bitcoin has been shifting inside an upward-sloping bear flag, a sample that usually varieties throughout a pause in a broader downtrend.
For now, BTC’s rapid draw back goal sits across the $73,000–$74,000 vary, close to the flag’s decrease trendline. A rebound from that space might ship the worth again towards the flag’s higher boundary close to $85,000.
BTC/USD every day chart. Supply: TradingView
Associated: Bitcoin liquidity steadiness hints at creating rally towards $80K
The flag setup might open the door to a deeper decline towards $56,000, primarily based on the sample’s measured transfer, if BTC closes decisively below the decrease development line.